Friday, September 26, 2008

Week #5

If only I could begin this week's look at the games by claiming to have called the mighty USC Trojans falling on Thursday night to unranked Oregon State. However, nobody saw that one coming, including your little blogger with the 75% winning percentage. But I'm sure glad to see them lose! Yet, just as I said about Ohio State, don't write Southern California off yet. Both teams are capable of recovering by running the table against their weak conferences. Regardless, the loss clearly does help the superior SEC and Big 12 powers who are seeking a spot in the BCS champtionship themselves.

Here's a look at 5 games from week 5.

North Carolina(+7.5) at Miami -- MY PICK: NORTH CAROLINA, GEORGE'S: NORTH CAROLINA; Butch Davis is slowly building a real program at North Carolina. The Tar Heels come into this game at 2-1, with a solid beating of Rutgers and a near upset of Virginia Tech. In fact, I couldn't understand why they are a TD underdog to struggling Miami. Then I saw that UNC lost QB T.J. Yates for a month to injury. Makes more sense now. However, I still don't like the Hurricanes and expect Coach Davis to rally his squad for the outright upset of his former team.

Alabama(+6.5) at Georgia -- MY PICK: ALABAMA, GEORGE'S: GEORGIA; What a game! As if last year's overtime thriller between these schools wasn't good enough, this one could be even better. Both teams are top 10 ranked and the winner of this game is primed to march towards an SEC championship. Alabama's QB John Parker Wilson and Georgia's QB Matthew Stafford are both juniors and in their 3rd year as starting quarterbacks. You can't ask for better in college football! This one will be close. So I'll take the Tide and the points.

Colorado(+5.5) at Florida State -- MY PICK: COLORADO, GEORGE'S: FLORIDA STATE; Here again I question the odds makers this week. I know Colorado is on the road. But there's no reason why FSU should be a TD favorite. FSU looked awful at home against Wake Forest last week. The luster fell quickly off new QB Christian Ponder. And though Mickey Andrews' defense was typically good, it's not enough when you only score 3 points. Colorado will score way more than that. Coach Dan Hawkins is rebuilding the Buffs and it's pretty cool that he's doing it with his son QB Cody Hawkins at the helm.

Arkansas (+27) at Texas -- MY PICK: TEXAS, GEORGE'S: TEXAS; Coming off a 40 pt loss at home to Alabama, look for new coach Bobby Petrino's Razorbacks to get destroyed at Texas. It's too bad because it's otherwise great to see this rivalry restored. I well remember then new coach Houston Nutt going into Austin with QB Matt Jones and coming out with a huge upset win earlier in the decade. Not this time. Coach Mack Brown's Texas squad has its usual offensive weapons led by QB Colt McCoy. However, Arkansas has nothing after losing their running attack and best wideout to the NFL draft. Petrino was hoping to build an offensive attack around 3rd year starting QB Casey Dick, but it just isn't working.

Wisconsin (-6) at Michigan -- MY PICK: WISONSIN, GEORGE'S: WISCONSIN; Can Michigan burn me a 3rd time? I vowed not to touch them again, but I think it's ok to go against them in this one. Wisconsin is so much better that I have to go with yet another road team. Michigan QB Stephen Threet has looked clueless (even against Notre Dame!). On the other hand, Coach Brett Bielma's Badgers have their usual solid running game in high gear. Wisconsin RB P.J. Hill keeps the tradition alive and I wouldn't be surprised to see him run for 200+ yards in this one and enter the Heisman discussion.

JTB YEARLY RECORD: 14-5-1
GW YEARLY RECORD: 7-12-1

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Game of Week #4: LSU 26 -- Auburn 21

This all Tigers rivalry that paves the way to the SEC championship game never fails to disappoint. Only this time, the road team stole a win for the first time in 8 years.

LSU trailed most of the game and Auburn's offense led by QB Chris Todd actually looked better than I expected. Bayou Bengal backup QB Jarrett Lee entered the game due to injury in the 3rd quarter and their struggles continued. However, after a costly interception returned for a TD, Lee began to turn things around for the visitors.

Louisiana State put up 23 second half points and took the lead for good on a 18 yd TD pass from Lee to WR Brandon LaFell with only 63 seconds left to play. Not surprisingly, Auburn immediately rallied, but came up short in the end.

Another great SEC matchup on Saturday night. Look for this week's Georgia-Alabama game to be even better!

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Week #4

The record continues to improve as I earned my first push of the year last week. I bitterly note that 2 of my 3 losses have come in picking Michigan. Even against the pathetic Irish of Notre Dame, backing the Wolverines of 2008 proved to be a big mistake. Lesson learned: I won't touch them again. Week #4 sees a beginning of real conference play, especially here in the South.

Here's a look at 5 games I like from week 4.

Temple(+28) at Penn State -- MY PICK: PENN STATE, GEORGE'S: PENN STATE; Last week visiting Penn State beat weakling Syracuse 55-13, amassing 560 yards and 7 TD's of offense. Coach Joe Paterno still recruits incredibly well and QB Daryl Clark is supported by a strong running attack. Penn State is good for one more home blowout before embarking on its Big 10 schedule next weekend.

Wake Forest(+4) at Florida State -- MY PICK: WAKE FOREST, GEORGE'S: FLORIDA STATE; Though they cracked the top 25 this week after two big wins over cupcakes, the once great Seminoles still have no business being the favorite in this game -- even at home. With returning QB Riley Skinner, Wake Forest handled them easily last year and even won the year before in Tallahassee. Let's see if FSU QB Christian Ponder is the real deal.

Buffalo (+34.5) at Missouri -- MY PICK: MISSOURI, GEORGE'S: BUFFALO; You won't see too many spreads this high. Missouri needs to beat MAC up-and-comer Buffalo by 5 TD's. Coming off a 52 point road win against a better Nevada team, I still think the spread is way too low. Look for Mizzo QB Chase Daniel to add plentifully to his already sick numbers.

LSU (-2.5) at Auburn -- MY PICK: LSU, GEORGE'S: LSU; Although Alabama may enter the mix this year, the winner of this game usually ends up on a fast-track to the SEC Championship game. Both teams have good coaching, good defense, and questionable offense with unproven QB play. However, Auburn's 3-2 win over Mississippi State last week was pathetic. Coach Tommy Tuberville is mistakenly trying to implement an option offense with players not fit for such a system. Laying 2 1/2 pts is not enough to scare me away from the Bayou Bengals

Florida(-7) at Tennessee -- MY PICK: FLORIDA, GEORGE'S: TENNESSEE; This one is a close call but I feel compelled to take a stand. I can see the Vols having a good year because of their talent on defense, but I can also see them being a disappointment if new starting QB Jonathan Crompton cannot help out the solid running game with a pass attack. On the other hand, if the Gators cannot handle this Tennessee team, they are not worthy of a top 5 ranking. I think Florida wins handily, even if they do surrender some points.

JTB YEARLY RECORD: 10-4-1
GW YEARLY RECORD: 4-10-1

Monday, September 15, 2008

Game of Week #3: South Florida 37 -- Kansas 34

The four letter network hit another jackpot with this game of the week played to a national audience on Friday night. The USF Bulls have come a long way in barely 10 years of existence. Coach Jim Leavitt has spurned multiple offers from big-time programs. Instead, he seems intent on molding South Florida into one. Despite the in-state competition, there's so much talent in this state, I think he'll succeed. And after this big non-conference win, the Bulls look poised to win the Big East and claim a BCS spot.

The game played in Tampa's Raymond James Stadium went back and forth all night. The Jayhawks were up by 10 at half and yet needed 2 4th quarter TD's to tie it up by crunch time. Kansas star junior QB Todd Reesing played hero-like in throwing for 373 yards and 3 TD's, but he also played goat-like with a last minute INT giving the Bulls a chance at a game-winning FG at the buzzer.

Good move by South Florida in going with true freshman kicked Maikon Bonani who nailed the 41 yard winner. I watched last year's kicker miss so many similar kicks in a "what might have been" season.

As usual, Lakeland, FL's junior QB Matt Grothe played spectacular for the Bulls. I don't think Grothe has pro potential. But he's one of those college players that make football so special. Indeed, he's a bull!

This blogger declares that the key to Kansas' loss was the lack of use of the weapon that is WR Dezmon BRISCOE, who only accounted for 36 yards on 3 catches.

Friday, September 12, 2008

Week #3

It was a big week for my non-existent Sportsbook account last Saturday. I hit on 4 of 5 picks and continued to distance myself from old George Washington.

Here we go with a look at 5 games from week 2.

Rice (+8.5) at Vanderbilt -- MY PICK: VANDY, GEORGE'S: RICE; Since they are the only team with a win in conference play, Vanderbilt sits on top of the entire SEC. They better enjoy it because it won't last. However, they sure earned some respect with a 24-17 home win over South Carolina. Vandy won that game with good defense and special teams play including 2 INT's, 4 sacks, a blocked field goal, and a block punt returned for a TD. They'll need more of that to beat the high octane Rice Owls as the Commodores offense is nothing special, led by athletic QB Chris Nickson. But I gotta go with the SEC here.

Florida Atlantc(+17) at Michigan State -- MY PICK: FLORIDA ATLANTIC, GEORGE'S: MICHIGAN STATE; Florida Atlantic is such a good story. The start-up program has been led by famed 72 year old coach Howard Schnellenberger since its inception only a decade ago. As they play in South Florida, the Owls are overshadowed by Schnellenberger's old team, plus every other big football school in the state. However, that started to change last year when Florida Atlantic captured the Sun Belt Conference and won their first ever bowl game. Look for this program to continue to grow as they land better hometown recruits. I would not be at all surprised if Schnellenberger leads another program from nothing to the hilltop where he can view the promised land before retirement, as he has done before in Miami and Louisville. With my lack of respect for the Big 10, I like high powered QB Rusty Smith to lead the Owls to the upset of the week.

Penn State (-27.5) at Syracuse -- MY PICK: PENN STATE, GEORGE'S: PENN STATE; What a shame how this once-famed rivalry has fallen. Ever since Harvard and Yale ceased to be football powers a century ago, these two schools have kept big time college football alive in the baseball-obsessed Northeast. However, times have changed. Newer schools like Boston College, Connecticut, and Rutgers have emerged and chipped away at recruiting. Meanwhile, while Coach Joe Paterno struggles to keep his Nittany Lions competitive, Syracuse's program has completely crumbled since the Donovan McNabb era ended in the late 1990s. Look for Penn State to rack up yardage on the ground and embarrass the Orangemen in their once-legendary Carrier Dome.

Michigan (-2) at Notre Dame -- MY PICK: MICHIGAN, GEORGE'S: MICHIGAN; Because this is Michigan-Notre Dame, I will make a pick. Otherwise, this game is a dud. Both teams are rebuilding and suck-ass teams. However, there is a big difference. The Wolverines will get better with new coach Rich Rodriguez. But for Charlie Weis and the Fighting Irish, it's over pal. Notre Dame is getting its comeuppance for wrongfully firing former coach Ty Willingham. And it couldn't happen to a nicer team. Expect little from once-prized recruit QB Jimmy Clausen. Michigan wins on the road with defense and special teams.

Ohio State(+11) at USC -- MY PICK: USC, GEORGE'S: USC; ESPN is calling this game "Clash At The Coliseum." To that I say "Much Ado About Nothing." Though Ohio State coach Jim Tressel is a likeable guy in his red sweater-vest, the OSU Buckeyes are totally over-rated yet again. It's a disgrace that voters continue to offer them such respect after their poor performances in big-time bowl games. The SEC seems to make mincemeat out of the Big 10's best every January. Ohio State still has QB Todd Boeckman and RB Chris Wells from last year's team, but they will continue to have a "speed" deficit on both sides of the ball against USC. Look for USC RB Joe McKnight to have a big game and start the Reggie Bush comparisons.

JTB YEARLY RECORD: 7-3
GW YEARLY RECORD: 2-8

Thursday, September 11, 2008

Game of Week #2: Wake Forest 30 -- Ole Miss 28

I just missed on this game proving me correct in being my upset special of the week. Wake Forest used a last second 41 yard field goal by K Sam Swank to avoid a home upset by the upstart Rebels. Swank is arguably the best kicker in the nation and him coming through in the clutch was no surprise. The game, however, was closer than many (your little blogger excluded) expected.

Rebels 1st year transfer QB Jevan Snead continued to impress with 4 passing touchdowns and 250 yards of passing. Wake Forest QB Riley Skinner played very well with 267 yards passing, 2 TD's, and a last minute 60 yard drive to set up the winning kick.

Look for this game to set up two things: 1) Ole Miss will be much improved this year as Houston Nutt is building a winning program already, and 2) With Clemson, Boston College, and Virginia Tech off to rocky starts, the ACC is Wake Forest's for the taking.

Friday, September 5, 2008

Week #2

I began the year with a solid week hitting 3 of 5 picks. Not surprisingly my bias revealed itself well as I hit all 3 predictions involving SEC schools and then missed the other two. Maybe I should reconsider diversification? That kind of average won't win much money, but it will keep you in the black. On the other hand, George Washington only correctly called 2 of his 5 games.

The coin and I have very different opinions this week. Here we go with a look at 5 games from week 2.

West Virginia (-8) at East Carolina -- MY PICK: WVU, GEORGE'S: WVU; Coach Skip Holtz led his underdog East Carolina Pirates to a win over Virgina Tech in the big upset of week #1. I don't see it happening again. The Mountaineers also got off to a strong start last week. You know the running game will be there led by North Fort Myers own RB Noel Devine. However, run-first QB Pat White actually looked really good throwing the ball for 5 TDs. He could be a Heisman winner with a few more games like that.

Cincinnati (+21.5) at Oklahoma -- MY PICK: OKLAHOMA, GEORGE'S: CINCINNATI; This is one of those games where the line is too low. The odds makers are showing respect for the decent program that has been emerging at Cincinnati in the past few years. However, this Oklahoma team is too good for them, especially at home. And Cincinnati will not have their star from 2007 QB Ben Mauk who recently was denied another season of eligibility by the NCAA. I really like Sooners QB Sam Bradford and RB DeMarco Murray. This is Oklahoma's chance to grab some 1st place votes in the polls with a big rout.

Central Michigan (+24) at Georgia -- MY PICK: GEORGIA, GEORGE'S: CENTRAL MICH; Pretty much the same thing as above. I think the line is low out of respect to the Central Michigan Chippewas who are led by do-it-all QB Dan LeFevour. In 2007 LeFevour became only the 2nd player in Division 1A history to pass for 3000 yards and run for 1000 yards in the same season. That's impressive but he won't be playing Eastern or Western Michigan this week. Look for big games out of Georgia QB Matt Stafford and RB Knowshon Moreno as UGA gets ready for the brutal SEC schedule.

Georgia Tech (+7) at Boston College -- MY PICK: GEORGIA TECH, GEORGE'S: BOSTON COLLEGE; First year coach Paul Johnson has brought a totally new offensive system to Georgia Tech. And after 5 years of Chan Gailey, they needed it! The Yellow Jackets will run the ball in a multi-option system. Last week numerous contributors led to an eye-popping 350 yards on the ground. On the other hand, Boston College is seeking an identity. They lost their star QB Matt Ryan to the NFL draft. Can career backup senior QB Chris Crane fill the void? This game will tell but until then, I'll take the points.

Mississppi (+7.5) at Wake Forest -- MY PICK: OLE MISS, GEORGE'S: WAKE FOREST; I guess I'll make this pick my upset special. I like Mississippi coach Houston Nutt's track-record for overachieving so much that I think I'll be riding the Rebels and new QB Jevan Snead a lot this year. On the other hand, Coach Jim Grobe has amazing amazingly turned the basketball crazy Wake Forest into a solid football program led by the smart play of QB Riley Skinner. It's a feel-good story but give me the SEC team anytime!

JTB YEARLY RECORD: 3-2
GW YEARLY RECORD: 2-3

Game of Week #1: UCLA 27 -- Tennessee 24 (OT)

ESPN got lucky and so did college football fans. Last week's game of the week proved to be the Tennessee-UCLA game that was featured on Monday Night Football. With the pros back this week, it's the last time we'll see a big college football game on Monday night until the BCS championship. The Pac 10-SEC matchup started slowly and was a defensive/special teams struggle until the 4th quarter. And Tennessee appeared in control as long as it stayed that way. However, both team's offenses came to life in the 4th quarter and UCLA got right back into it. In fact, the Volunteers needed a last second game-tying FG to force overtime.

The overtime proved less dramatic as UCLA hit their field goal on its first drive, while Tenneessee's kicker Daniel Lincoln missed his chip shot. Too bad. However, this game reminded us how excited college football can be because of the unique overtime format. I sure wish the NFL would adopt the college rules. I love when these games go 4 or 5 OT periods.

As for the game's turnout, I wouldn't read too much into the result. UCLA is rebuilding and will still struggle this season in the Pac 10. Meanwhile, Tennessee had a tough task beginning the season on the West Coast and playing in the famed Rose Bowl. Their running game, led by star Arian Foster, and defense looked solid as usual. QB Jonathan Crompton was only fair but he did play very well when it mattered most. I think UT can still make some noise in the SEC East this year, led by my favorite player WR Josh Briscoe.